Corn Drops for Third Day as U.S. Harvest Advances, Supply Hits 3-Year High


(Bloomberg)--Corn slumped for a third day to a one-month low as the advancing U.S. harvest prompted investors to sell the grain, and after the U.S. said supplies left from last year’s crop climbed to the highest level since 2006. December-delivery corn lost as much as 2.5 percent to $4.5425 a bushel, the lowest level since Sept. 3, on the Chicago Board of Trade and was at $4.565 at 1 p.m. Tokyo time. The contract tumbled 30 cents on Oct. 1, the maximum allowed by the Chicago exchange.

Inventories on Sept. 1 rose 2 percent to 1.708 billion bushels from a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Sept. 30. That was 322 million bushels higher than the agency’s Sept. 10 estimate. About 27 percent of the corn crop was harvested as of Sept. 26, up from 18 percent a week earlier, the USDA said last week. “With the forecast for increasing stockpiles, corn remained under pressure in the U.S.,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at IDO Securities Co.

The grain surged 33 percent in the third quarter, the steepest gain for that period since 1974. Corn had the fourth- biggest third-quarter rise among 19 raw materials in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index behind sugar, wheat and cotton. In the Midwest, “the next seven days will bring continued dry weather” and temperatures rising to above-normal by the end of the week, forecaster Telvent DTN Inc. said yesterday. That would mean the “harvest is going gangbusters in the Midwest corn and soybean fields, which is a bearish influence on trade.”

Soybean Output

In September, the USDA predicted a record corn crop of 13.16 billion bushels (334.3 million metric tons), up 0.4 percent from last year. U.S. soybean output will total 3.483 billion bushels, up 3.7 percent from a record 3.359 billion last year, the USDA said. Soybeans for November delivery fell as much as 1.4 percent to $10.42 a bushel and last traded at $10.435. The oilseed lost 4.5 percent on Oct. 1, the biggest drop for a most-active contract since July 2009. Prices fell 6.1 percent last week, the most in 13 months.

Wheat for December delivery dropped as much as 1.3 percent to $6.4625 a bushel and was last at $6.4725. Prices dropped 9 percent last week, the biggest drop since the period ended Jan. 15.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jae Hur in Tokyo at jhur1@bloomberg.net

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130921775


Will we see headline inflation rearing its ugly head soon? or more like its beautiful head soon? Will the Fed embrace a better headline number? Or will core remain the champion...



Click Link for Graphs

---------------


he price paid to farmers for a bushel of corn averaged $4.78 in October, up from $3.61 in the same month last year.
text size A A A November 7, 2010
For months, prices paid to farmers for corn, wheat and soybeans have been shooting up. But so far, grocery prices have held steady for consumers.

The reason is largely a matter of lag time. Crop prices have jumped so quickly since June that the changes haven't made their way — yet — through the retail pricing pipeline.

"You will have higher prices for beef and pork and poultry, but that does take a while to work through the system," U.S. Department of Agriculture economist Larry Salathe says.

The Recent Rise In Grain Prices
Bad weather and increased demand caused a steep rise in grain prices over the last year.


Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA
Credit: Stephanie d'Otreppe/NPR
A Sudden Jump …

The USDA has released a report showing that in October, grain prices took huge leaps. The price paid to farmers for a bushel of corn averaged $4.78, up from $3.61 in the same month last year. The price per bushel of wheat jumped to $6.08, compared with $4.47 in the same month of 2009.

The numbers were the latest of a steep and sudden rise in grain prices that started when summer weather took its toll on crops worldwide. Some of the worst weather was in Russia, where drought became so severe the government banned all exports of wheat. Elsewhere, flooding wiped out wheat farmers in Pakistan, and poor weather in parts of the United States also reduced grain production.

Corn in particular has been in short supply this year. U.S. farmers didn't produce enough to satisfy all of the demand from ethanol producers, food companies and livestock growers.

At the same time, the demand for grains continued to increase in much of the world. The growing ranks of middle-class families in India and China have been buying more food, adding to the demands on farmers.

… And A Slow Rise

But while grain prices have been soaring, grocery store prices have remained subdued. Over the past year, the federal Consumer Price Index for food has gone up only 1.4 percent. That's the lowest annual food inflation rate in nearly two decades.

The contrast between farm price increases and retail price stability reflects how different sectors of the economy are responding to change. In the agriculture commodity markets, prices can change by the minute to reflect new conditions. The grain prices jumped up immediately this summer when it became clear that bad weather around the globe was going to hurt crop yields.

But the spike hasn't translated immediately or directly into an equal-sized jump in retail food prices. That's because the price of groceries is tied to many costs, such as packaging, marketing, labor and, most especially, transportation. The biggest single cost in a box of cereal is the cost of delivering it to the local grocery store, so the cost of gasoline is a bigger factor than corn in the retail price.

Still, the rising grain prices are starting to create some inflationary pressures. General Mills Inc. recently announced that in mid-November it will impose a "low single-digit list price increase on selected cereals."

Also, as grain prices rise, the cost of feeding livestock goes up. As a result, economists now say food price inflation likely will rise by at least 3 percent in 2011.