As during this period before the Greek Calends, the market Oracles are feeding us with their prophetic forecasts for 2010, we, at TLofT, needed to place our bets too for the coming year. Before I started this post, I chewed the sacred laurel leaves and burnt the last release of The Economist in the eternal fire on the altar of the Lords of trading and I came up with my outlook for 2010: "Where unwed maiden dance in chorus to flute accompaniment and where the Fibonacci 61% retracement crosses the SMA(50), worship the Dow Jones".
In other words: in 2010, the markets are likely to go up unless they drop. Ooops I forgot: that's not impossible that they range sideways too.

See the Full post

2 things I wanted to add to that post:

Quote:

The Expectancy can spend some time and a significant number of trades before it asserts itself, in the meantime, the estimates can be far below or above of the real Expectancy.

It means that when you have a negative expectancy system, your interest is to put as much as possible in the first draw in order not to let the expectancy to assert itself. In the Roulette example: the best strategy is to put all your stake the first time ("all in on the 26!!!" )

- an another example of negative expectancy is the short term options. They tend to be overpriced, so when you sell options, to some extent you do the job of the casino and the odds tend to be in your favour.