March 11th 2010
So far this week has been pretty slow. Large cap stocks continue to lag the market which can be observed by looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average which still has room to move higher before breaking the January
high.
One important thing to note is that volume has picked up this week considerably – particularly on the SP500 and OEX. It’s difficult to say if this volume is a good sign or not.
A lot of stocks and sectors are trading near their January high and this gives traders a reason to unload shares. On the flip side, the several sectors and indexes have broken their January high and this triggers a surge in volume as breakout traders try to take advantage of the new high and momentum. So you can see how the surge of volume is not a useful indicator right now.
Here are some charts of what I think we could see in the coming weeks.

US Dollar Index – Daily Trading Chart

I follow the US dollar index very closely simply because it affects the prices of stocks and commodities. I used a line chart below in order to take out the daily candle stick noise which made it very difficult for our eyes to pick up this pattern.
The chart shows a possible head & shoulders pattern and if that is the case then we should see the dollar start to slide lower. In turn, this would boost stocks and commodities. This is the fuel that I think could really move the market sharply higher in the coming weeks.


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